CQP's liquidation posture remains deeply negative, consistent with prior periods and confirmed by MFFAIS CLV/LLV/OLV estimates of approximately -$15.0B to -$15.3B. The balance sheet as of March 31, 2026 shows total assets of $17.1B against total liabilities of $17.0B, producing stated partners' capital of only $78M. Under liquidation haircuts, the picture deteriorates sharply. PP&E at $15.1B—the dominant asset—recovers at best 50-70% in a distressed LNG terminal sale, implying a haircut of $4.5B to $7.6B. Cash of $279M is recoverable at par; restricted cash of $22M has structural constraints under SPL debt covenants and may not be freely available. AR of $592M recovers at 90-95%. Inventory of $151M recovers at 60%, or roughly $91M. Derivative assets of $467M (largely noncurrent) are mark-to-market positions tied to long-dated IPM agreements; their liquidation value is speculative and likely significantly below book given the bilateral nature of the contracts and $1.16B in gross fair value of Liquefaction Supply Derivatives carried as a net liability. On the liability side, total debt outstanding is $14.3B face value against $14.2B net carrying value. Current portion alone is $1.6B. The Obligor Group (CQP parent-level) summarized balance shows $7.7B long-term debt net against $3.3B total assets, underscoring the structural leverage at the CQP holdco layer separate from SPL's own $8.6B+ debt stack. SPL redeemed $253M of notes in Q1 2026 (5.875% 2026s and amortization of term notes), reducing near-term maturity risk modestly, but the aggregate liability stack is unchanged in magnitude. The $1.6B current debt classification signals meaningful near-term refinancing exposure. The Liquefaction Supply Derivatives net liability deteriorated from -$523M at December 31, 2025 to -$1.17B at March 31, 2026—a $644M adverse move in one quarter driven by widening global/U.S. gas price spreads. Under liquidation, these derivative liabilities settle at face/fair value, adding directly to the liability stack. Distributions declared of $482M in Q1 2026 ($0.79/unit) against net income of only $186M confirms distributions are funded by cash flow, not earnings, and distributions-in-excess-of-earnings of $296M further erode the already thin equity buffer. No goodwill or intangibles requiring zero-haircut are present; the SPL Expansion Project (pre-FID) has no capitalized amounts that are separately identifiable from current PP&E. Filing discusses future SPL Expansion Project capital commitment in MD&A but does not separately XBRL-tag committed or contingent capital obligations, which is relevant to understanding the full liability exposure if FID is taken in 2026/2027.
▼ Community Notes