Marpai, Inc. (MRAI) presents a deeply negative liquidation recovery posture as of December 31, 2025. MFFAIS CLV/LLV/OLV are all approximately -$36.8M to -$37.5M, consistent with the balance sheet. Total reported assets are $10.9M against total liabilities of $43.5M, producing GAAP stockholders' deficit of -$32.6M. Under liquidation-lens haircuts, recoverable asset value is materially lower than book: cash of $133K recovers at 100%; restricted cash of $8.8M (held per JGB debenture blocked account terms) recovers at 100% but is encumbered against the JGB debt stack; accounts receivable of $697K recovers at 90-95% (~$630-660K); capitalized software net of $60K and operating lease ROU of $218K recover at 0% under intangible/non-transferable haircut. PP&E is $0. Total liquid asset recovery approximates $9.5-9.6M before any liability claims. Against this, liabilities at face value total $43.5M, including: convertible debentures to JGB ($8.8M net carrying, $8.8M principal, maturing April 2027, bearing 14% fixed); the AXA acquisition liability ($19.4M total, $8.0M current, $11.4M noncurrent, due December 2028, inclusive of $5.2M accrued interest); operating lease obligations ($792K present value, $909K undiscounted); accrued expenses ($2.1M); and accounts payable ($3.7M). The AXA liability ($19.4M) and JGB debentures ($8.8M) together constitute 65% of total liabilities and are both contractual cash obligations that survive wind-down. The AXA liability is effectively seller financing from the 2022 Maestro acquisition and carries accrued interest of $5.2M already embedded in the $19.4M balance; it does not contractually extinguish on liquidation. Post-balance-sheet, the company issued two promissory notes to its CEO in February and March 2026 ($410K and $250K, both 12% per annum, both short-dated), adding incremental senior debt not reflected in the 12/31/25 balance sheet. The company carries a DTA valuation allowance of $21.6M (up $3.8M from 2024), confirming zero tax shield value. Accumulated deficit is -$115.4M. Revenue declined 36% YoY ($28.2M to $18.1M), indicating continued deterioration of the operating base underlying any going-concern assumption. Management disclosed substantial doubt about ability to continue as a going concern in the prior 10-Q; the 10-K does not separately re-assert this language but the financial condition is unchanged. The filing discusses restricted cash of $8.8M in MD&A/note context as held under the JGB collateral arrangement, which functions as offset against the debenture stack rather than a freely available asset in wind-down. Filing does not separately tag restricted cash release conditions in XBRL.
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