NextDecade Corp (NEXT) as of March 31, 2026 presents a deeply negative liquidation posture, consistent with its status as a pre-revenue LNG facility developer in active construction. The MFFAIS-computed liquidation value of negative $10.5 billion reflects the structural reality: the company carries $9.7 billion in face-value debt (gross carrying amount) plus $914.9 million in accrued current liabilities and $118.9 million in operating lease obligations, against a consolidated asset base where the dominant position—$11.7 billion gross PP&E, essentially all Rio Grande LNG Facility under construction—must be haircut severely under a liquidation lens. Construction-in-progress assets for an LNG greenfield with no operating revenue command distressed recovery rates well below the standard 50-70% PP&E haircut range; forced liquidation of partially constructed LNG infrastructure would likely realize 20-40 cents on the dollar at best, given illiquidity, jurisdictional complexity, and limited buyer universe. Applying even a 50% haircut to the $11.7 billion gross PP&E yields approximately $5.8 billion in recoverable asset value against $10.9 billion in total liabilities at face, producing a liquidation shortfall to equity of approximately negative $5 billion on a standalone PP&E basis. Add the $335.8 million in unamortized debt issuance costs (zero recovery), $393.5 million in deferred financing fees within VIE assets (zero recovery), and ROU assets at discounted recovery, and the deficit deepens further. Restricted cash of $321.9 million (current) and unrestricted cash of $143.1 million are the only near-par assets. Derivative assets of $514.4 million (current plus noncurrent, all interest rate swaps) have liquidation value highly dependent on termination settlement against the matching swap liability portfolio of $188.5 million; net mark-to-market position of approximately $326 million is at risk of significant collateral demands or close-out costs on wind-down. The quarter-over-quarter comparison against the December 31, 2025 10-K shows the most significant change is the $864 million increase in gross debt (from $8.83 billion to $9.69 billion), driven primarily by continued drawdowns on the CD Credit Agreement ($681 million increase to $4.39 billion) and the TCF Credit Agreement ($65 million increase to $550 million) and Train 4 LLC Credit Agreement ($71 million increase to $428 million), plus PIK accretion on the Super FinCo Term Loan ($40 million) and Series B corporate debt ($7 million). PP&E under construction grew $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter as construction spending accelerates across Trains 1-5. The VIE structure is critical to the liquidation analysis: the filing explicitly states that VIE assets (Phase 1, Train 4, Train 5 entities) may only be used to settle those entities' own obligations with no recourse to NextDecade for VIE liabilities. The VIEs carry $9.3 billion in total liabilities against $12.9 billion in assets—the intercompany carve-out means NEXT corporate equity receives distributions only after project debt is fully serviced, a condition years away at best. The 13% Super FinCo Term Loan ($1.25 billion, PIK-eligible) and 13.5% Series B Corporate Credit Agreement ($207.6 million, PIK-eligible) represent compounding high-cost obligations at the holding company level that erode any equity residual. NEXT corporate-level equity (excluding noncontrolling interest) is negative $30.7 million as reported. Total equity including NCI is $2.36 billion but this NCI ($2.39 billion) represents third-party JV partner interests with prior distribution rights. Filing discusses EPC total expected capital costs for Phase 1 ($18.0 billion), Train 4 ($6.7 billion), and Train 5 ($6.7 billion) in MD&A but these aggregate construction commitment figures are not separately tagged in XBRL.
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