AES Corp presents a deeply negative liquidation posture consistent with prior periods. MFFAIS reports a cash liquidation value of -$6.77B, liquid liquidation value of -$5.12B, and operating liquidation value of -$4.48B as of March 31, 2026. These figures reflect the structural reality of a capital-intensive utility and power generation platform: gross PP&E is carried at approximately $49.2B (net $39.3B), and under a 50-70% haircut, recovered asset value falls well short of the $40.6B total liability stack (current $8.4B plus noncurrent $32.2B). Cash of $1.6B recovers at par but constitutes a small fraction of total assets. AR of $1.65B recovers at approximately $1.5-1.6B under a 90-95% haircut. Inventory of $648M recovers at approximately $389M at 60%. Intangibles of $2.02B (net of accumulated amortization $503M) recover at zero. Goodwill of $342M recovers at zero. Total debt outstanding is $30.6B gross ($24.1B non-recourse plus $6.2B recourse), with $2.3B of non-recourse classified as current and $919M of recourse maturing within twelve months. The supplier financing obligation of $805M stays at face value. Redeemable NCI of $2.9B represents a senior claim on equity. The pending merger agreement (Horizon Parent, signed March 1, 2026, expected close late 2026/early 2027) does not alter the liquidation analysis but does introduce $14M of Q1 2026 merger costs and a $321M break fee contingency. The 2025 Act (enacted July 4, 2025) revised ITC/PTC eligibility and GILTI/NCTI rules, creating potential future tax cash flow effects not yet quantifiable on the balance sheet. Chilean deferred tax assets of $264M, dependent on future taxable income, would recover at zero under liquidation. The Mong Duong BOT loan receivable ($730M noncurrent plus $101M current, gross $867M with $39M allowance) represents a single-counterparty sovereign-adjacent exposure in Vietnam recovering over a 25-year PPA term; under liquidation, realizable value is uncertain and likely materially discounted from carrying value. No material change in overall recovery posture versus the December 31, 2025 10-K; the Q1 2026 10-Q reflects incremental CapEx spend ($1.77B in Q1 2026 vs. $1.25B in Q1 2025), deepening the PP&E base and associated debt, with no offsetting reduction in the liability stack.
▼ Community Notes