Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) presents a deeply negative liquidation posture as of March 31, 2026. MFFAIS-computed CLV of -$259M and LLV of -$256M are consistent with the balance sheet structure. Applying standard liquidation haircuts confirms equity recovery is materially negative. Total assets of $314.4M are dominated by flight equipment (net book value $217.0M; gross $266.8M) and operating lease ROU assets ($33.0M), both of which attract 50-70% haircuts. At a 60% recovery on PP&E, flight equipment yields approximately $130M. Cash of $9.0M recovers at par. AR of $6.8M at 90-95% contributes ~$6.4M. Inventory of $1.2M at 60% contributes ~$0.7M. Goodwill of $20.9M and finite-lived intangibles of $5.9M contribute zero. All-in liquidation asset pool is roughly $175-185M before any off-balance sheet items. Against this, total liabilities stand at $280.2M at face value: long-term debt carrying amount of $227.8M (initial term loans $210M, DDTL drawn $10.3M, revolver $6.0M, other; all under the October 2025 Bain Capital credit agreement maturing 2030), operating lease obligations of $33.2M, accrued liabilities of $22.3M, and warrant liabilities embedded in accrued expenses. On top of the $280M in reported liabilities, the Series A Preferred Stock classified as mezzanine equity carries a redemption value of $414.3M as of period-end, up from $407.3M at December 31, 2025, accreting at approximately $7.0M per quarter. In any liquidation or fundamental change scenario, this $414M instrument ranks ahead of common equity and effectively consumes any residual asset value several times over. Common stockholders' deficit is already -$380.1M on a GAAP basis, and the liquidation shortfall is worse when haircuts are applied to assets. Net loss for Q1 2026 was $31.3M, nearly double Q1 2025's $15.5M, with SG&A spiking to $16.7M (+95% YoY) due to warrant fair value changes ($5.1M non-cash charge) and workforce/organizational costs. Quarterly cash burn from operations was $21.1M against $9.0M unrestricted cash at period-end. A post-period DDTL draw of $14.0M (April 14, 2026) added liquidity but also increased the debt liability stack. The filing discusses the potential $15M contingent payment obligation to MAB if remaining Spanish Scoopers are not acquired; this is disclosed in MD&A but not separately tagged in XBRL. The covenant structure requires minimum Operating Cash Flow of $30M annually and a Total Leverage Ratio not exceeding 7.0x through December 2026, creating financial covenant risk given the operating cash burn trajectory.
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